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NBA Computer Picks: Leaning Golden State at Phoenix and Miami Heat at Sacramento

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Friday, February 08, 2019

New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Pistons 108 and Knicks 102, with Detroit winning 64% of the time. At -375 on the moneyline, the Pistons implied probability to win is 79 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Knicks since the moneyline is moving in their ‘direction’. The Pistons have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-2 record. In these games the Pistons averaged 107 points per game and the Knicks 101. The projection based point spread is DET -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -8.5. The Pistons have a record of 9-10-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 19-22-3 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Pistons have the ATS edge head to head going 5-4-0 vs the Knicks. The Pistons were favored by an average of -3.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
New York Knicks 206.5 99.0 102.2 24% 36% 101.3 (2 Wins)
Detroit Pistons -8.5 107.5 107.7 76% 64% 106.8 (7 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Denver Nuggets vs Philadelphia 76ers

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the 76ers. The projected score is 76ers 118 and Nuggets 117, and Philadelphia is winning 51% of simulations. At -213 on the moneyline, the 76ers implied probability to win is 68 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 5 matchups the 76ers are 3-2. Both teams have averaged 112 points in these games. The computer would set the spread at PHI 0. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -4.5. The 76ers have a record of 18-20-0 as a favorite. The Nuggets have a record of 7-7-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The 76ers are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Nuggets. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -5.3 but the 76ers won by an average of 0.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets 228.5 112.0 117.7 35% 49% 112.0 (2 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 116.5 117.9 65% 51% 112.4 (3 Wins)

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Wizards over the Cavaliers. The projected score is Wizards 116 and Cavaliers 106, and Washington is winning 73% of the sims. The moneyline for the Wizards is -495 which translates to 83 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Cavaliers based on how the moneyline is moving. The Cavaliers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. In these games, the Cavaliers averaged 112 and the Wizards 111 ppg. The computer would set the spread at WAS -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cavaliers with the Vegas moving from +10.5 to +10. The Wizards have a record of 11-14-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 23-26-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Cavaliers have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Wizards. The Wizards were favored by an average of -2.8 points in these games but the Cavaliers won by an average of 0.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers 221.5 105.8 105.7 19% 27% 112.1 (5 Wins)
Washington Wizards -10.0 115.7 115.8 81% 73% 111.3 (2 Wins)

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Chicago Bulls vs Brooklyn Nets

The odds and our simulations favor the Nets over the Bulls. The projected score is Nets 112 and Bulls 106, with Brooklyn winning 63% of the time. The Nets are -400 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 80 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Nets going 6-0. In these games the Nets averaged 113 points per game and the Bulls 100. The projection based point spread is BKN -5.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -8.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nets are 9-6-0. As an underdog, the Bulls are 22-27-1. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Nets are 5-1-0 against the spread vs the Bulls. The Nets were favored by an average of -4.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 13.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls 223.5 107.5 106.2 23% 37% 99.7 (0 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets -8.5 116.0 111.9 77% 63% 112.8 (6 Wins)

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks

The Bucks are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Bucks 114 and Mavericks 107, with Milwaukee winning 67% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Bucks is -352 which translates to 78 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Mavericks are 3-2. In these games the Mavericks averaged 103 points per game and the Bucks 97. The computer would set the spread at MIL -7. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening DAL +8. The Bucks have a record of 26-19-2 as a favorite. The Mavericks have a record of 21-10-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Mavericks have the ATS edge head to head going 4-0-1 vs the Bucks. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -5.6 but the Mavericks won by an average of 6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks 222.5 115.2 114.0 76% 67% 96.8 (2 Wins)
Dallas Mavericks +8.0 107.3 106.8 24% 33% 102.8 (3 Wins)

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Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns

The Warriors are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Warriors 121 and Suns 100, and Golden State is winning 90% of simulations. At -2000 on the moneyline, the Warriors implied probability to win is 95 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Warriors going 6-0. In these games, the Warriors averaged 124 and the Suns 102 ppg. The projection based point spread is GS -20.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Warriors as the Vegas line has moved from +13.5 to 14.5. The Warriors have a record of 22-25-1 as a favorite. The Suns have a record of 24-29-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Warriors are 5-1-0 against the spread vs the Suns. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -12 and they won by an average of 21.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors 229.5 122.0 121.0 91% 90% 123.7 (6 Wins)
Phoenix Suns +14.5 107.5 100.3 9% 10% 101.8 (0 Wins)

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans

The odds favor the Pelicans, and the sims are solidly on the Pelicans as well. The projected score is Pelicans 117 and Timberwolves 115, with New Orleans winning 57% of the time. The moneyline for the Pelicans is -195 which translates to 66 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Timberwolves based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Timberwolves going 6-1. In these games, the Timberwolves averaged 113 and the Pelicans 105 ppg. The projection based point spread is NO -2.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pelicans are 13-14-0. As an underdog, the Timberwolves are 13-13-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Timberwolves are 6-1-0 against the spread vs the Pelicans. The Pelicans were favored by an average of -0.9 points in these games but the Timberwolves won by an average of 7.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Minnesota Timberwolves 233.5 114.2 114.7 37% 43% 112.7 (6 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans -5.0 119.3 117.1 63% 57% 104.9 (1 Win)

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Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Heat as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Heat 113 and Kings 112, with Miami winning 53% of the latest sims. The Kings are -147 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Kings are 3-2. Both teams have averaged 107 points in these games. The computer would set the spread at MIA -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Kings as the Vegas line has moved from -2.5 to -3. The Kings have a record of 11-2-0 as a favorite. The Heat have a record of 16-8-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Kings have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Heat. The average point spread in these games was Heat -4.4 and they won by an average of 0.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Miami Heat 218 107.5 113.1 42% 53% 107.0 (2 Wins)
Sacramento Kings -3.0 110.5 112.1 58% 47% 106.6 (3 Wins)

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Saturday, February 09, 2019

San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Jazz are favored. The projected score is Jazz 110 and Spurs 107, and Utah is winning 57% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Jazz are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games the Jazz averaged 113 points per game and the Spurs 106. The computer would set the spread at UTA -3. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Jazz have a record of 20-20-1 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 15-11-0 as an underdog. Both have covered 3 times head-to-head. The Jazz were favored by an average of -0.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs 107.3 43% 106.3 (2 Wins)
Utah Jazz 110.1 57% 112.8 (4 Wins)

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Pacers are favored. The projected score is Pacers 110 and Cavaliers 95, and Indiana is winning 84% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Pacers have the recent head-to-head edge going 8-6. In these games the Pacers averaged 105 points per game and the Cavaliers 100. The projection based point spread is IND -15.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pacers have a record of 17-17-1 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 23-26-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Pacers are 10-4-0 against the spread vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -1.4 but the Pacers won by an average of 5.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers 95.2 16% 99.8 (6 Wins)
Indiana Pacers 110.5 84% 105.1 (8 Wins)

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Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Hawks are slightly favored. The projected score is Hawks 124 and Hornets 123, with Atlanta winning 52% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Hornets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-1 record. In these games, the Hornets averaged 118 and the Hawks 107 ppg. The projection based point spread is ATL -1. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Hawks have a record of 6-9-0 as a favorite. The Hornets have a record of 12-12-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Hornets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-2-0 vs the Hawks. The average point spread in these games was Hornets -7.1 and they won by an average of 11.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets 122.8 48% 118.0 (6 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks 123.8 52% 106.9 (1 Win)

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Toronto Raptors vs New York Knicks

The current simulations favor the Raptors, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Raptors 114 and Knicks 101, with Toronto winning 80% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Raptors going 8-1. In these games, the Raptors averaged 113 and the Knicks 99 ppg. The computer would set the spread at TOR -13.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Knicks have a record of 13-16-0 as a favorite. The Raptors have a record of 7-5-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Raptors are 7-2-0 against the spread vs the Knicks. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -8.9 and they won by an average of 13.6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors 114.1 80% 112.9 (8 Wins)
New York Knicks 100.8 20% 99.3 (1 Win)

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LA Clippers vs Boston Celtics

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Celtics are favored. The projected score is Celtics 119 and Clippers 107, and Boston is winning 77% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Clippers averaged 112 and the Celtics 110 ppg. The projection based point spread is BOS -12. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Celtics are 25-21-1. As an underdog, the Clippers are 10-16-1. The Clippers have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Celtics. The Celtics were favored by an average of -0.1 points in these games but the Clippers won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
LA Clippers 107.1 23% 112.2 (2 Wins)
Boston Celtics 118.9 77% 110.2 (2 Wins)

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Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls

The current simulations favor the Wizards, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Wizards 117 and Bulls 112, and Washington is winning 61% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Wizards have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games the Bulls averaged 103 points per game and the Wizards 102. The projection based point spread is WAS -5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bulls have a record of 7-6-0 as a favorite. The Wizards have a record of 12-17-0 as an underdog. While they may be 3-5 straight up in previous matchups, the Bulls have been better against the spread. The Bulls are 6-2-0 against the spread vs the Wizards. The average point spread in these games was Wizards -3.8 but the Bulls won by an average of 0.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Washington Wizards 117.4 61% 102.0 (5 Wins)
Chicago Bulls 112.5 39% 102.9 (3 Wins)

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New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Pelicans are favored. The projected score is Pelicans 104 and Grizzlies 102, and New Orleans is winning 55% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Pelicans are 4-3. In these games, the Pelicans averaged 107 and the Grizzlies 99 ppg. The computer would set the spread at NO -1.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Grizzlies are 10-11-0. As an underdog, the Pelicans are 13-12-1. The Grizzlies have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Grizzlies have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Pelicans. The average point spread in these games was Pelicans -3.9 and they won by an average of 7.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans 104.2 55% 107.0 (4 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies 102.5 45% 99.1 (3 Wins)

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Rockets are winning a slight majority of simulations. The projected score is Rockets 112 and Thunder 111, and Houston is winning 51% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Thunder are 3-2. In these games, the Thunder averaged 108 and the Rockets 105 ppg. The computer would set the spread at HOU 0. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 19-22-0. As an underdog, the Thunder are 8-4-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Thunder have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Rockets. The Rockets were favored by an average of -2.3 points in these games but the Thunder won by an average of 3 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder 111.6 49% 107.8 (3 Wins)
Houston Rockets 111.8 51% 104.8 (2 Wins)

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Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Bucks are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Bucks 116 and Magic 102, with Milwaukee winning 82% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bucks going 7-2. In these games the Bucks averaged 107 points per game and the Magic 102. The projection based point spread is MIL -15. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bucks have a record of 26-19-2 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 20-18-1 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups with one push. The Bucks were favored by an average of -7.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Orlando Magic 101.6 18% 101.7 (2 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks 116.4 82% 107.1 (7 Wins)

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