NBA ATS Parlay: Miami Heat Over Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers Over San Antonio Spurs

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers

The odds favor the Pacers, and the sims are solidly on the Pacers as well. The projected score is Pacers 108 and Raptors 99, and Indiana is winning 72% of the sims. At -136 on the moneyline, the Pacers implied probability to win is 58 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Raptors going 5-1. In these games, the Raptors averaged 107 and the Pacers 99 ppg. The projection based point spread is IND -9.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -2.5. The Pacers have a record of 16-14-1 as a favorite. The Raptors have a record of 5-5-0 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -4.5 and they won by an average of 7.8 points.

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Celtics to win the game. The projected score is Celtics 116 and Cavaliers 96, and Boston is winning 90% of the sims. The moneyline for the Celtics is -5000 which translates to 98 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Cavaliers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 13-7 record. In these games, the Cavaliers averaged 108 and the Celtics 102 ppg. The projection based point spread is BOS -20. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cavaliers with the Vegas moving from +17.5 to +16.5. The Celtics have a record of 22-18-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 19-24-1 as an underdog. While they may be 7-13 straight up in previous matchups, the Celtics have been better against the spread. The Celtics have the ATS edge head to head going 10-9-1 vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -3.2 and they won by an average of 5.8 points.

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LA Clippers vs Miami Heat

The odds favor the Heat, and the sims are solidly on the Heat as well. The projected score is Heat 111 and Clippers 102, and Miami is winning 73% of simulations. At -186 on the moneyline, the Heat implied probability to win is 65 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Heat are 3-2. In these games the Heat averaged 100 points per game and the Clippers 97. The projection based point spread is MIA -9. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -4.5. The Heat have a record of 10-13-0 as a favorite. The Clippers have a record of 7-13-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Heat have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Clippers. The average point spread in these games was Clippers -5 but the Heat won by an average of 3 points.

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Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets

The odds favor the Nets, and the sims are solidly on the Nets as well. The projected score is Nets 111 and Magic 104, and Brooklyn is winning 69% of the sims. The moneyline for the Nets is -230 which translates to 70 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Nets are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Nets averaged 114 points per game and the Magic 113. The projection based point spread is BKN -7.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Nets as the Vegas line has moved from -5 to -6. The Nets have a record of 8-4-0 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 18-16-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Nets have the ATS edge head to head going 6-1-1 vs the Magic. The average point spread in these games was Magic -0.6 but the Nets won by an average of 1 points.

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Houston Rockets vs New York Knicks

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Rockets. The projected score is Rockets 112 and Knicks 110, and Houston is winning 52% of simulations. At -313 on the moneyline, the Rockets implied probability to win is 76 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockets going 4-0. In these games, the Rockets averaged 121 and the Knicks 105 ppg. The computer would set the spread at HOU -1.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening NY +7. The Rockets have a record of 18-18-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 17-17-2 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -8.9 and they won by an average of 15.8 points.

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Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls

The simulations slightly favor the Hawks who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Hawks 110 and Bulls 106, with Atlanta winning 62% of the latest sims. The Bulls are -125 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Bulls have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games the Bulls averaged 106 points per game and the Hawks 104. The projection based point spread is ATL -4.5. With more action on the Hawks, oddsmakers have moved the line from +2.5 to +2. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bulls are 7-4-0. As an underdog, the Hawks are 20-23-0. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Hawks -1.3 but the Bulls won by an average of 2.5 points.

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Charlotte Hornets vs Memphis Grizzlies

The odds favor the Grizzlies, and the sims are solidly on the Grizzlies as well. The projected score is Grizzlies 103 and Hornets 98, and Memphis is winning 62% of the sims. At -112 on the moneyline, the Grizzlies implied probability to win is 53 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Hornets are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Hornets averaged 110 and the Grizzlies 92 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MEM -5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1. The Grizzlies have a record of 9-9-0 as a favorite. The Hornets have a record of 10-10-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Hornets have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Grizzlies. The average point spread in these games was Hornets -2.5 and they won by an average of 17.5 points.

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Detroit Pistons vs New Orleans Pelicans

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Pelicans. The projected score is Pistons 111 and Pelicans 110, with Detroit being given a 50% chance of winning. The Pelicans are -155 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 61 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Pelicans have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Pelicans averaged 111 points per game and the Pistons 105. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick ’em. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Pelicans have a record of 12-13-0 as a favorite. The Pistons have a record of 14-15-1 as an underdog. The average spread in these 5 games was a pick ’em (zero points) and the Pelicans won by an average of 5.8 points.

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San Antonio Spurs vs Philadelphia 76ers

The odds favor the 76ers, and the sims are solidly on the 76ers as well. The projected score is 76ers 116 and Spurs 106, and Philadelphia is winning 77% of the sims. The moneyline for the 76ers is -185 which translates to 65 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 5 matchups the Spurs are 3-2. In these games, the Spurs averaged 104 and the 76ers 99 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHI -10.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -4.5. The 76ers have a record of 17-17-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 14-9-0 as an underdog. While they may be 2-3 straight up in previous matchups, the 76ers have been better against the spread. The 76ers are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Spurs. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -6 and they won by an average of 5.2 points.

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Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz

The odds favor the Jazz, and the sims are solidly on the Jazz as well. The projected score is Jazz 107 and Nuggets 104, and Utah is winning 58% of simulations. The moneyline for the Jazz is -154 which translates to 61 percent (chance of winning). In their last 9 matchups the Nuggets are 5-4. Both teams have averaged 97 points in these games. The projection based point spread is UTA -3. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 16-17-1. As an underdog, the Nuggets are 6-6-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Nuggets are 6-3-0 against the spread vs the Jazz. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -0.6 and the average margin of victory was zero points.

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Thursday, January 24, 2019

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Thunder are favored. The projected score is Thunder 118 and Pelicans 111, with Oklahoma City winning 68% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 5 matchups the Pelicans are 3-2. In these games, the Pelicans averaged 113 and the Thunder 110 ppg. The computer would set the spread at OKC -7.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Thunder are 19-17-1. As an underdog, the Pelicans are 8-11-1. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Pelicans are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Thunder. The Thunder were favored by an average of -3 points in these games but the Pelicans won by an average of 2.8 points.

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Golden State Warriors vs Washington Wizards

The current simulations favor the Warriors, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Warriors 117 and Wizards 112, with Golden State winning 61% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Warriors going 4-1. In these games, the Warriors averaged 124 and the Wizards 113 ppg. The computer would set the spread at GS -4.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Wizards have a record of 10-12-0 as a favorite. The Warriors have a record of 4-9-0 as an underdog. The Wizards have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Wizards are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Warriors. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -9.4 and they won by an average of 10.6 points.

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Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Trail Blazers are favored. The projected score is Trail Blazers 113 and Suns 106, with Portland being given a 65% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Trail Blazers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-1 record. In these games, the Trail Blazers averaged 117 and the Suns 105 ppg. The projection based point spread is POR -6.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Suns have a record of 6-14-1 as a favorite. The Trail Blazers have a record of 9-12-0 as an underdog. While they may be 1-8 straight up in previous matchups, the Suns have been better against the spread. The Suns have the ATS edge head to head going 5-4-0 vs the Trail Blazers. The average point spread in these games was Trail Blazers -7.8 and they won by an average of 12 points.

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs LA Lakers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Lakers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Lakers 112 and Timberwolves 109, and Los Angeles is winning 57% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Timberwolves going 6-1. In these games, the Timberwolves averaged 116 and the Lakers 104 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAL -3. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 13-16-1. As an underdog, the Timberwolves are 11-11-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Timberwolves are 6-1-0 against the spread vs the Lakers. The average point spread in these games was Timberwolves -4.5 and they won by an average of 11.7 points.

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